Monday, November 30, 2009
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Saturday, November 28, 2009
Market breath index correlated to market turning point
stock finder: extreme days correlated to market turning point?!
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/dont_ignore_this_chart/Market-Indicators/
The Record High Percent Index is the basis for another popular index called the Breadth Thrust Indicator. First developed by Martin Zweig, the Breadth Thrust Indicator is equal to the 10-day simple moving average of the Record High Percent Index.
According to Zweig, a "Breadth Thrust" occurs when the Breadth Thrust indicator rises from below 40% to above 61.5% within 10 trading days. The signal occurs when the given market is in the process of changing from an oversold condition to one of strength, but has not yet become overbought. Zweig goes on to say that this signal typically occurs before most bull markets.
"Breadth Thrusts" are rare but significant. When the market is really ready to rally again, expect to see the red line on this chart to jump.
Click on a symbol below to see how many (or what percent of) stocks are exceeding their moving averages:
Ticker Symbol
Ticker Ratio
Name
$DOWA150
$DOWA150R
DJ Industrials Stocks Above 150-Day Moving Average
$DOWA200
$DOWA200R
DJ Industrials Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average
$DOWA50
$DOWA50R
DJ Industrials Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average
$NAA150
$NAA150R
NASDAQ Stocks Above 150-Day Moving Average
$NAA200
$NAA200R
NASDAQ Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average
$NAA50
$NAA50R
NASDAQ Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average
$NDXA150
$NDXA150R
NASDAQ 100 Stocks Above 150-Day Moving Average
$NDXA200
$NDXA200R
NASDAQ 100 Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average
$NDXA50
$NDXA50R
NASDAQ 100 Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average
$NYA150
$NYA150R
NYSE Stocks Above 150-Day Moving Average
$NYA200
$NYA200R
NYSE Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average
$NYA50
$NYA50R
NYSE Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average
$OEXA150
$OEXA150R
S&P 100 Stocks Above 150-Day Moving Average
$OEXA200
$OEXA200R
S&P 100 Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average
$OEXA50
$OEXA50R
S&P 100 Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average
$SPXA150
$SPXA150R
S&P 500 Stocks Above 150-Day Moving Average
$SPXA200
$SPXA200R
S&P 500 Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average
$SPXA50
$SPXA50R
S&P 500 Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average
$TSXA150
$TSXA150R
S&P/TSX Composite Stocks Above 150-Day Moving Average
$TSXA200
$TSXA200R
S&P/TSX Composite Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average
$TSXA50
$TSXA50R
S&P/TSX Composite Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average
If you are very interested in using market indicators to improve your investment decisions, we recommend you visit DecisionPoint.com
PC Ratio vs IV http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/pcvi.htm
See below for description
Description
Much of the data used in tracking market sentiment is derived from the options market. On the one side is Put/Call data, which of course, is used to arrive at the daily Put/Call Ratio. More misunderstood is the volatility data that is used for arriving at values for the S&P 100-based VIX, and the Nasdaq 100-based VXN. Volatility in this context refers to Implied Volatility (IV), which is a factor in the pricing of options, particularly Put Options, which are used for portfolio protection, and as a way to profit from downturns in the market. The greater the amount of fear of financial loss, the more the “fear factor” is priced into the cost of Puts, and consequently, IV tends to go up. VIX readings of 50 or higher are associated with near-to-intermediate term market bottoms, and VXN readings of 70 or higher with the same.
One of the things that we've observed in our research, and which differentiates these data sets, is how rather significantly volatility data tends to lag Put/Call data. The most obvious reason is that a rise in the volume of Put purchases on a day the market is dropping tends to be a visceral reaction to real-time market conditions. In other words, there's a "herding psychology" involved that is more reactive than reasoned. On the other hand, options pricing is a thought out process, and an increase in IV is more trend-driven than event-driven. Market makers at the options exchanges price in volatility based on that of the underlying market. Therefore, if the market is basically bouncing back and forth within a certain price range, implied volatilities will also move within that same range. That data ends up being reflected in the daily VIX and VXN.
When a long-term period of selling sets in, such as we saw between March and October 2002, volatility indices start to gradually reflect the "fear factor" that then gets priced in to the purchase of Puts. When viewed in this context, we can see why bifurcations between P/C Ratios and the volatility data tend to occur.
Our Put/Call - VI chart plots the two sentiment data together to note when their trends diverge and converge. The left scale (in red) tracks the P/C Ratio, and the right scale (in blue) tracks the volatility data (based on the composite data we use to create our VIX-VXN Composite index). We set January 2001 as our base year, which is when the CBOE started publishing intraday data for the VXN.
One of the things you'll note immediately when viewing the chart is that the P/C data tends to reach tops and bottoms before the volatility data. Secondly, the volatility data often tends to overshoot the P/C data at peaks and troughs. One of the reasons for this is that trend changes aren't generally seen for what they are until well into the process. For instance, after a prolonged period of selling, people approach the market more cautiously, and that bearishness takes longer to work itself off in Put pricing. Of course, the reverse is also true, and it's one of the reasons why many contrarians believe that the VIX and VXN are a good measure of complacency in the markets.
The bottom line is that the P/C Ratio tends to be more of a "real-time" indicator, but doesn't provide enough of a benchmark for persistence of trend. At the same time, the VIX and VXN are too slow for timing purposes. When studying this chart, therefore, we want to look at divergences between the data sets, which are more apt to occur during periods of complacency, and at convergences, and in particular in-synch movement, to confirm the persistence of trend, and as an aid in marking sentiment extremes. These extremes, of course, are always followed by a reversal of the trend.
Friday, November 27, 2009
Margin Requirement on Leveraged ETF Products
Margin Requirement on Leveraged ETF Products (margin_change_20091201.1)
http://ibkb.interactivebrokers.com/node/1124
Overview:
Effective December 1, 2009, FINRA has implemented increased customer margin requirements for leveraged Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and uncovered options underlying leveraged ETFs (see NASD Rule 2520 and NYSE Rule 431).
Leveraged ETFs are a subset of ETFs which are intended to generate performance in multiples of that of the underlying index or benchmark (e.g. 200%, 300% or greater). In addition certain of these ETFs seek to a generate performance which is not only a multiple of but also the inverse of the underlying index or benchmark (e.g., a short ETF). These leveraged funds typically include among their holdings derivative instruments such as options, futures or swaps which are intended to provide the desired leverage and/or inverse performance.
The regulatory objective with respect to this margin increase is to recognize the leverage embedded in these instruments and establish a margin rate which is commensurate with that level of leverage (not to exceed 100% of the ETF value). Thus, for example, whereas the base strategy-based maintenance margin requirement for a non-leveraged long ETF will remain at 25% and a short non-leveraged ETF at 30%, examples of the maintenance margin change for leveraged ETFs are as follows:
1. Long an ETF having a 200% leverage factor: 50% (= 2 x 25%)
2. Short an ETF having a 300% leverage factor: 90% (= 3 x 30%)
A similar scaling in margin will also take effect for options. Thus, for example, whereas the base strategy-based maintenance margin requirement for a non-leveraged listed and uncovered broad based ETF index option will remain at 100% of the option premium plus 15% of the ETF market value less any out-of-the-money amount (to a minimum of 10% of ETF market value in the case of calls and 10% of the option strike price in the case of puts), that 15% rate will increase by the leverage factor of the ETF.
In the case of portfolio margin accounts, the effect will be similar, with the scan ranges by which the leveraged ETF positions will be stress tested increasing by the ETF leverage factor.
Clients maintaining positions in these ETFs should be aware that IB's standard liquidation policies will remain in effect upon the implementation of this new margin requirement and thereafter and any account which reports a margin deficit is subject to immediate liquidation.
A list of the leveraged ETF products impacted by this change are outlined below
SYMBOL
MULTIPLIER
DESCRIPTION
QLD
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA QQQ
QID
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT QQQ
SSO
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA S&P500
SH
-100%
PROSHARES SHORT S&P500
SDS
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500
PSQ
-100%
PROSHARES SHORT QQQ
MVV
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA MIDCAP400
MYY
-100%
PROSHARES SHORT MIDCAP 400
MZZ
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400
DDM
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA DOW30
DOG
-100%
PROSHARES SHORT DOW30
DXD
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT DOW30
UWM
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA RUSSELL2000
RWM
-100%
PROSHARES SHORT RUSSELL2000
TWM
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20
SAA
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA SMALLCAP600
SBB
-100%
PROSHARES SHORT SMALLCAP600
SDD
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6
UVG
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA RUSSELL1000 VA
SJF
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT RUSSELL10
UKF
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA RUSSELL1000 GR
SFK
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT RUSSELL10
UVU
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA RUSSELL MIDCAP
SJL
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT RUSSELL M
UKW
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA RUSSELL MIDCAP
SDK
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT RUSSELL M
UVT
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA RUSSELL2000 VA
SJH
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20
UKK
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA RUSSELL2000 GR
SKK
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20
UYM
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA BASIC MATERIAL
SMN
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BASIC MAT
UGE
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS
SZK
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT CONSUMER
UCC
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA CONSUMER SERVI
SCC
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT CONSUMER
URE
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA REAL ESTATE
SRS
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA
ROM
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA TECHNOLOGY
REW
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOG
UPW
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA UTILITIES
SDP
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT UTILITIES
UYG
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA FINANCIALS
SKF
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT FINANCIAL
RXL
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA HEALTH CARE
RXD
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT HEALTHCAR
UXI
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA INDUSTRIALS
SIJ
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIA
DIG
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA OIL & GAS
DUG
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS
USD
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS
SSG
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU
EFZ
-100%
PROSHARES SHORT MSCI EAFE
EFU
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT MSCI EAFE
FXP
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT FTSE/XINH
DXSP
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS DJ ES 50 SHORT
EUM
-100%
PROSHARES SHORT MSCI EMERGING
EEV
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT MSCI EMER
EWV
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT MSCI JAPA
RMM
200%
RYDEX 2X S&P MIDCAP 400 ETFLCAP
RMS
-200%
RYDEX INVERSE 2X S&P MIDCAP
RSU
200%
RYDEX 2X S&P 500 ETF
RSW
-200%
RYDEX INVERSE 2X S&P 500 ETF
RRY
200%
RYDEX 2X RUSSELL 2000 ETFALLCAP
RRZ
-200%
RYDEX INVERSE 2X RUSS 2000
LTL
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA TELECOMMUNICAT
TLL
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT TELECOMMU
PST
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 7-
TBT
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20
SEF
-100%
PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
BGU
300%
LARGE CAP BULL 3X SHARES
BGZ
-300%
LARGE CAP BEAR 3X SHARES
TNA
300%
SMALL CAP BULL 3X SHARES
TZA
-300%
SMALL CAP BEAR 3X SHARES
RHM
200%
RYDEX 2X HEALTH CARE
RHO
-200%
RYDEX INV 2X HEALTH CARE
RFL
200%
RYDEX 2X FINANCIAL
RFN
-200%
RYDEX INV 2X FINANCIAL
RTG
200%
RYDEX 2X TECHNOLOGY
RTW
-200%
RYDEX INV 2X TECHNOLOGY
REC
-200%
RYDEX INV 2X S&P ENERGY
REA
200%
RYDEX 2X ENERGY
DDG
-100%
PROSHARES SHORT OIL & GAS
ERX
300%
ENERGY BULL 3X SHARES
UMM
300%
MACROSHARES MAJ MET HOU UP
ERY
-300%
ENERGY BEAR 3X SHARES
TBF
-100%
PROSHARES SHORT 20+ TREASURY
DXSN
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS SHORTDAX ETF
RTR
250%
REVENUESHARES ADR FUND
X4S
-100%
DBXT CAC 40 SHORT
EUO
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
ULE
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA EURO
ULE
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA EURO
EUO
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
YCL
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA YEN
YCS
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT YEN
XUKS
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS FTSE 100 SHORT ETF
XUKS
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS FTSE 100 SHORT ETF
XSPS
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS S&P 500 SHORT
DXSR
-100%
DB X-TR II TRX EUR 5Y SH TR
XSPS
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS S&P 500 SHORT
DXSR
-100%
DB X-TR II TRX EUR 5Y SH TR
XSPD
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS S&P 500 SHORT
DXST
-100%
DB X-TR II TRX CRS 5Y SH TR
UGL
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA GOLD
GLL
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD
AGQ
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA SILVER
ZSL
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT SILVER
DZK
300%
DIREXION DEVELOP MKT BULL 3X
DPK
-300%
DIREXION DEVELOP MKT BEAR 3X
EDC
300%
DIREXION EMERG MKT BULL 3X
EDZ
-300%
DIREXION EMERG MKT BEAR 3X
TYH
300%
DIREXION TECHNOLOGY BULL 3X
TYP
-300%
DIREXION TECHNOLOGY BEAR 3X
MWJ
300%
DIREXION MID CAP BULL 3X
FAS
300%
DIREXION DAILY FIN BULL 3X
SCO
-200%
PROSHRE U/S DJ-AIG CRUDE OIL
UCO
200%
PROSHRE ULT DJ-AIG CRUDE OIL
UCD
200%
PROSHRE ULT DJ-AIG COMMODITY
CMD
-200%
PROSHRE U/S DJ-AIG COMMODITY
DES2
-200%
ETFX DAX 2X SHORT FUND
DTO
-200%
POWERSHARES DB OIL 2X SHORT
DGP
200%
DB GOLD DOUBLE LONG ETN
DZZ
-200%
DB GOLD DOUBLE SHORT ETN
BDD
200%
POWERSHARES DB METALS 2X
BOS
-100%
POWERSHARES DB METALS SHORT
BOM
-200%
POWERSHARES DB MTLS 2X SHORT
SZO
-100%
POWERSHARES DB CRUDE SHORT
DEE
-200%
DB COMMODITY DOUBLE SHORT
DDP
-100%
PWRSHS DB COMMODITY SHORT
DYY
200%
DB COMMODITY DOUBLE LONG ETN
DAG
200%
DB AGRICULTURE DOUBLE LONG
AGA
-200%
DB AGRI DOUBLE SHORT ETN
ADZ
-100%
DB AGRICULTURE SHORT ETN
DGZ
-100%
DB GOLD SHORT ETN
PTM
-100%
E-TRACS UBS LONG PLATIN ETN
PTD
-100%
E-TRACS UBS SHORT PLATIN ETN
SHC
-100%
LYXOR SHORT CAC 40
SHA
-100%
LYXOR ETF SHORT AEX
DGU
200%
DB GOLD DOUBLE LONG ETN
DGJ
-200%
DB GOLD DOUBLE SHORT ETN
DAA
200%
DB AGRICULTURE DOUBLE LONG
DAD
-200%
DB AGRI DOUBLE SHORT ETN
DOE
-200%
POWERSHARES DB OIL 2X SHORT
SAGR
-100%
ETFS SHORT AGRICUL DJ-AIGCI
SALU
-100%
ETFS SHORT ALUMINIUM
SCOC
-100%
ETFS SHORT COCOA
SWEA
-100%
ETFS SHORT WHEAT
SCFE
-100%
ETFS SHORT COFFEE
SCTO
-100%
ETFS SHORT COTTON
SSYO
-100%
ETFS SHORT SOYBEAN OIL
SCOR
-100%
ETFS SHORT CORN
SGAS
-100%
ETFS SHORT GASOLINE
SCOP
-100%
ETFS SHORT COPPER
SBUL
-100%
ETFS SHORT GOLD
SLHO
-100%
ETFS SHORT LEAN HOGS
SLCT
-100%
ETFS SHORT LIVE CATTLE
SOIL
-100%
ETFS SHORT CRUDE OIL
SHEA
-100%
ETFS SHORT HEATING OIL
SNIK
-100%
ETFS SHORT NICKEL
SSOB
-100%
ETFS SHORT SOYBEANS
SSIL
-100%
ETFS SHORT SILVER
SNGA
-100%
ETFS SHORT NATURAL GAS
SPLA
-100%
ETFS SHORT PLATINUM
SLEA
-100%
ETFS SHORT LEAD
STIM
-100%
ETFS SHORT TIN
SSUG
-100%
ETFS SHORT SUGAR
SHE
-100%
LYXOR SHORT EUROPE
DXS8
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS DJ STOXX 600 B
DXS9
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS DJ STOXX 600 H
DX2A
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS DJ STOXX 600 O
DX2B
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS DJ STOXX 600 T
DX2C
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS 600 TELECOM SH
DX2K
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS FTSE 100 SHORT ETF
9GA7
-100%
ETFS SHORT CRUDE OIL
TYD
300%
DIREXION DLY 10-Y TR BULL 3X
TMF
300%
DIREXION DLY 30-Y TR BULL 3X
TYO
-300%
DIREXION DLY 10-Y TR BEAR 3X
TMV
-300%
DIREXION DLY 30-Y TR BEAR 3X
4RTQ
-100%
ETFS SHORT COCOA
9GA3
-100%
ETFS SHORT COFFEE
9GA5
-100%
ETFS SHORT CORN
9GA6
-100%
ETFS SHORT COTTON
4RTG
-100%
ETFS SHORT SOYBEAN OIL
4RTH
-100%
ETFS SHORT SOYBEANS
4RTK
-100%
ETFS SHORT WHEAT
4RTJ
-100%
ETFS SHORT SUGAR
9GAZ
-100%
ETFS SHORT PETROLEUM DJ-AIGC
EFO
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA MSCI EAFE
EET
200%
PROSHARES ULT MSCI EMER MKTS
XPP
200%
PROSHARES ULT FTSE/XIN CH 25
EZJ
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA MSCI JAPAN
4RTD
-100%
ETFS SHORT NATURAL GAS
BZQ
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT MSCI BR
EPV
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT MSCI EU
SMK
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT MSCI ME
JPX
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT MSCI PA
MWN
-300%
DIREXION DLY MID CAP BEAR 3X
UPRO
300%
PROSHARES ULTRAPRO S&P 500
SPXU
-300%
PROSH ULTRAPRO SHORT S&P 500
UWC
200%
PROSHARES ULTRA RUSSELL 3000
TWQ
-200%
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT RUSSELL
FAZ
-300%
DIREXION DAILY FINL BEAR 3X
DRV
-300%
DIREXION DAILY REAL EST BEAR
DRN
300%
DIREXION DAILY REAL EST-BULL
DMM
-300%
MACROSHARES MAJ MET HOU DOWN
SALL
-100%
ETFS SHORT ALL COMM DJ-AIGCI
SNRG
-100%
ETFS SHORT ENERGY DJ-AIGCI
SNEY
-100%
ETFS SHORT EX-ENERGY DJ-AIGC
SGRA
-100%
ETFS SHORT GRAINS DJ-AIGCI
SIMT
-100%
ETFS SHORT INDUSTRIAL METALS
SLST
-100%
ETFS SHORT LIVESTOCK DJ-AIGC
SPET
-100%
ETFS SHORT PETROLEUM DJ-AIGC
SPMT
-100%
ETFS SHORT PRECIOUS MTLS
SSFT
-100%
ETFS SHORT SOFTS DJ-AIGCI
SZIC
-100%
ETFS SHORT ZINC
DEL2
200%
ETFX DAX 2X LONG FUND
DL2P
200%
ETFX DAX 2X LONG FUND
SEU2
-200%
ETFX DJ EURO ST 50 DBL SH 2X
SE2P
-200%
ETFX DJ EURO ST 50 DBL SH 2X
LEU2
200%
ETFX DJ EURO STOXX 50 LEV 2X
DS2P
-200%
ETFX DAX 2X SHORT FUND
LE2P
200%
ETFX DJ EURO STOXX 50 LEV 2X
LUK2
200%
ETFX FTSE 100 LEVERAGED 2X
SUK2
-200%
ETFX FTSE 100 SUP SHRT ST 2X
DES2
-200%
ETFX DAX 2X SHORT FUND
XC4S
-100%
DBXT CAC 40 SHORT
XSKS
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS 600 TELECOM SH
XSPS
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS S&P 500 SHORT
XSDX
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS SHORTDAX ETF
XS8S
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS DJ STOXX 600 T
XSSX
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS DJ ES 50 SHORT
XS7S
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS DJ STOXX 600 B
XSDS
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS DJ STOXX 600 H
XSES
-100%
DB X-TRACKERS DJ STOXX 600 O
DEL2
200%
ETFX DAX 2X LONG FUND
DNO
-100%
UNITED STATES SHORT OIL FUND
EZC
-200%
EASYETF CAC40 DOUBLE SHORT
Links:
Finra Regulatory Notice 09-53 (ETF Margin Increase)
- CredMan
- LiqMonitor
- Margin
- Option Strategies
- Portfolio Margin
- Reg T Margin
- Regulatory Agencies
- Stocks/ETFs