Pham’s Monday Tuesday==> Wednesday to Friday

System 1 (G2): simpler, more practical

Read Big Trade by Peter Pham.  Simplicity. 

Abandoned pivots, artificial stuff. 

Start using previous HL as reference points.  previous C.

Start using opening range, previous O.

Start using inside bar (IB), outside bar (OB).

Interval collection: 1d, 1w, 2w(2w1,2w2), 3w(3w1,3w2,3w3), 1m, 3m, 6m(6m3,6m6), 1yr(1y3,1y6,1y9,1y12)

If target #1 reached, probability reaching target #2.

Use futures adjusted ETF data.  Use 1min aggregated daily data.

Spike + 3 Push Wedge Channel? SPY G+1% within $0.08, overnight short?

Monitor the spread price until Dec 20.–Dec 20 178+Sep 19 181 put = 10.33-10.46

Can SPY rebound to 181.40 by Dec 16?

Do I need to roll over short 176 puts?

Dec 20 , 176 put delta  = –0.18, SPY = 180.9

Option A: Roll over now with calendar spread +Dec13-Dec20 176, credit 0.42, net of comm $0.40.

Option B:  Let Dec 13 176 expire worthless.  Short Dec 20 176 on Dec 16.   Dec 20 176 put is 0.49.  As long as it doesn’t go down by 0.09, Option B is better than Option A.  $0.09 decrease on options price means $0.50 increase on SPY’s price.  Will SPY be higher than 181.4 by Dec 16?

Hedge 179 on big gap up day

No matter 179 gap filled or not,  0.55 credit funded 0.43 put debit spread. with a longer term bearish bias.   The same type of strategy was used on Nov 20 to play the 178.5 gap and made $63.

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DIS, Jan 3, 65put for 0.26; LCC, Dec 20, 19put for 0.20; recoup partially my $59 poweropt fee

3 SPY spread Nov 20, Nov21

1st: gap 8 day fill
2nd: gap 8 day not fill, but long term bearish – touch 170 by Jun 20, 2014
3rd: delta and gamma hedging.  long term bearish (<168 by Sep 19, 2014) but may not dip below 175 by Dec 20, 2013 and Jan 17, 2014.

Raging Bulls squeezed my sickening gut. Hold!!!

NFLX 390 put $10 to $65, 6 fold opportunity, means $30k to $180k

VXX strategy flaw and trade execution error

To close or flatten position, hit bid to sell long, hit ask to cover short

VXX was $100 and is $3.5 (split adjusted).  It can go to sub penny theoretically.  $VIX futures will likely floor at 10. 

GOOG $1000 trade and chart options momentum play

First post after vacation.  GOOD strong upside broke $1000.  OI on Oct 18 1000 call has been very high since Sep 30.  Smart money knew it.

$0.4 1000 call became $7.4 at open today

Market Maker move busted a lot of suckers.  Iron Condor failed big!

RSI Guy

Deron Wagner Morpheus Trading

weekly charts

$299 video