W3 D5: is ES (overnight) all time high? Grab money and run

BOJ news.  Wild overnight session.

4 round trips, all less than 4-ticks.  It worked.

Lessons: 1) less than 1-pt and multiple; 2) HLP and LHP on 1 minute but after 1 or 2 failed setups; 3) Grab and run.  It’s Halloween.

W3 D4: Getting better.

If “you are only as good as your last trade”, I am good.  Only 3 rounds.  ES +129;  ST account taking 5 put overnight to swing trade.

Lesson: 1) wait for the bigger pattern; 2) Take fast profit; 3) Pocket; 4) Missed the morning open gap play.

opening gap filled

W3-D3: Fed Day. Fed ended bond-buying

+306, +200, –500, –189 finally.

Lessons: 1) Fed day, steal small fast gain; 2) Don’t overtrade on  frequency and size.  I traded 2 lots and got killed; 3) Take loss fast and quick.  I did very well.  This is breakthrough.  Keep the capital and fight another day.  But should setup pre-calculated stop; 4) Don’t give up and stay calm.

.  Don’t give up!

ES daily technical maintenance hours: 4:15pm-:4:30pm, 5:15pm–6:00pm

The gap is 4pt!  I might reduce my loss if I knew it.

W3: D2. Down day for me. Finally I was caught.

Was +88.  At the close, –$330. 

This is manipulated market, 4 gaps in a row without being filled.  Dow 17K printed in such a manner.

Swing shorts are caught.  Stops are discovered.  Bear lost. 

Lesson: 1) Treat LC’s opinions just as opinions.  Lao Yu’s comments in 2003.   Use your own judgment; 2) Pocket play; 3) NQ sometimes leading; 4) If you don’t know who’s Dick, you are.

W3-D1: traded 1 hour only. Day job saved me again

ES: $63, 6 ticks

Lesson: 1) HL 2hr didn’t work. If I traded it, I would have lost at least 6pt (-$300); 2) 3 pockets; 3) the 10:05am bear trap didn’t fool me.

W2, D5: $+385; Yallen: the best TA painter

$33, $-8, $300, $150, $385. 

Lesson: 1) didn’t trade in low range, premarket (rigged), lunch time. 2) 11-1pm day job was a saver, again!  Otherwise, I would always underestimated MM and Yallen’s power.

Good way to end a week.  See if DT can break $13K next week.

W2 D4 WTF $-1 day but big fight

Managed to scratch the day.  No trade in the first 2 hours because there’s no clear move.  Fun started at pm.  Was –$320, then calmed down to $4 for a long time, then $86, then $150, then minus –$150, Finally $-1.  What’s significant was options play around 2:45pm. 

Mkt is so manipulated today and even LC coughed.  I used 2011-10-10 and 2011-10-08 transcripts and had 11 winners in a row. Eventually got too optimistic. 

Lesson: 1) MM will not follow the majority; 2) Look for the early signs; 3) After many winners in a row (in 30min) , walk away or trade small to keep your profit; 4) 3:30-4:00pm, only manage existing trade, try not initiate new trade.

Mimic 1998

What Causes Fed To Hit the Panic Button?

By Lawrence Chan

1998 Russian Bond Crisis

Back in 1998, there was the Russian bond crisis. Following is the S&P500 daily chart at the time.

Well, everything happening in Russia was no concern for Fed since July 1998. Not until late September that year when Long Term Capital Management was in so much trouble a bailout was needed.

And PPT was hard at work to stop the consequential fallout in early October 1998 affecting the stock markets worldwide.

2007 Lehman Crisis

Back in 2007, there was the Lehman crisis. Following is the S&P500 daily chart at the time.

Again, Fed did not care how leveraged the banks were at the time (not even now). Yet, when Lehman was facing a wipe out scenario in Aug 2007. Someone worked hard again to stop the stock market from dropping in mid August that year.

2014 Who Is The Troublemaker This Time

In 2014, we have this 10% correction into mid October which is perfectly normal for a normal stock market. Yet everyone knows it is not a normal stock market. Following is the S&P500 daily chart.

Someone worked hard again to force the stock market to bottom out at 10% correction level. Every one knows who that is.

But why? For the last two crisis, no one knows exactly what were done back then until several years later.

One thing we know for sure though. Since the signature of PPT is there just like the last two panic buying, we can guess with confidence that some big ass firms probably in so much trouble that Fed is again forced to act.

The juicy details of this event will be told in the future, when they have decided to let us know.

W2 Day 3: Not a big range day

First, I missed the yesterday’s big move: ES 40+ pts.  After I read the chart and LC commentary, I knew I was actually saved.  I would have shorted yesterday’s market wrongly multiple times and had the potential to lose $1000.  Thanks to the day job that pulled me away from the market!

Today, +96 (3, 2, 1-tick) play, then –$200 (lost 1, 2, 3-pts in a row in a choppy and churning environment), then I calmed down and patiently reduced loss to only –$11, finally I took a bold position (HL 2hr setup with a high probability outcome) and went to washroom for 10 minutes.  When I came back, I captured a 6-pt move, +$306.   11 rounds on ES. 4 rounds on SPXU.

I decided to stop here and buy Chinese violinist domains that I wanted.

Lesson: 1) Calm after loss in a row; 2) Cut loss short and quick.  Always has new opportunity later; 3) Trade small and “profit and pause” in a choppy and churning environment (knew it through the quiet overnight move) ; 4) Patient waiting for higher RRR; 5) HL 2hr setup.

W2, Day 1”": Slow and choppier day (although 1-swing trend buying all day). Had to chicken out.

Past lesson told me to shut down.

DT: $172; ST: $14

Done for the day.  2:54pm

Day 6: DT:–132; ST: +394

Lessons: 1) Avoid very obvious setup, especially same type happened several times earlier in the day; 2) Op Ex weeks MM setup.  not easy for them to pin above open.

Overall, a very good week to start the career this way.

Day 5: DT account $8 loss. Swing T account with $300 loss overnight.

Lesson: 1) Hidden MM; 2) How to trade ledge and identify failed one early. 

It’s job day. Open platform at 3:20pm.  Job seemed to be a saver because today’s even more volatile faster than yesterday. Insane market!

Equity Line best YTD since trading resumed. 1st 1K profit day since day trading ES

Day 4: even volatile day. 10+ pt swings, there were 12 of them. very fast.

If I thought yesterday was volatile, today is 3 times at least more.  $850  down to –$50, then up to $1005.  Veteran trader like LC made huge money.

37 round trips on ES.  (yesterday was 26 rounds). 25 round trips on 3x ETF.   I was up $220 on UPRO.  Then –$950, finally $120.

Lesson: 1) buffer catchup for 2 or 3 ticks; 2) buffer more on more volatile day; 3) Use 3xETF to time ES; 4) Shouldn’t happen again on $220 became –$950. Must set stop; 5) Cut $3-4 pts ES loss multiple times, reentered and captured a 12-pt move; 6) A day of LC. who successfully predicted multiple Yellen’s move. 

Day 3. A vey volatile day

Was down $485, then played catchup all the way to –81 only before lunch.  Then –31 before haircut.  Long lunch hour break (haircut+grocery shopping) was a saver.  Otherwise I was not sure I could survived the big intraday reversal.  Maybe downed back to –300 at least.   After shopping with a cool mind, I am +108.  This $600 equity swing means I am capable.   Just focus on setup that I am familiar with.  I did it!

Lesson: 1) A lot bear traps in the am, then a lot of bull traps in the pm.  A wide consolidation day; 2) Pocket on 5 min chart; 3) measured move and failed measure move. Bet on probability.  4) Homerun + single+ double blended.  Know when to expect what.

I am now shutting down my trading platform before I give it back.  That’s another lesson.

Day 2 after Trading Resumed

Scratched. Net –16 for the following 4 round trips.  I flattened in AH 8:30pm whiling watching LC’s tool and bailed out with a scratch.  If I want to stay in this business, I can not hope.  Maybe tomorrow a black Tuesday, maybe big rebound.  The point is that don’t hold position overnight.  

Lesson todays: 1) bottom picking – sucker play; 2) 轻敌 No easy money in market. Forgot “the  tiger with a wide open mouth”.

Trading Resumes

After domaining for 6 months, I resumed ES day trading.   Being an active domainer is not the life style I want to get into.  For now, I will treat domain investment as a passive way to earn extra income.

Today, in 30 min, net $42.  4 winners, 1 loser (cut loss, otherwise, I will lose much bigger and no way to come back)