P41
Whatever charting service you use, you should add
the following indicators to your default chart:
• Simple moving averages (SMAs): 20 MA, 50 MA,
200 MA
• Moving average convergence-divergence
(MACD): 12–26–9 periodicity
• Stochastics: 5–3 (or 5–3–3) periodicity
• On balance volume (OBV)
• Relative strength index (RSI): 5 periodicity
• Commodity channel index (CCI): 20 periodicity
Theory:
An MA measures the consensus, or
average, closing price of a stock over a given
period of time.
MACD measures the difference between a
shorter-term consensus of price and a longer-term
consensus, and works on the assumption that when
these diverge, the current price trend is increasing
in strength, and when they converge, the trend is
decreasing in strength.
Stochastics measures the relationship
between the most recent closing price and the
total price range (highs to lows) over a given
period of time. A declining stochastics indicates
that price is tending to close near the lower end of
its recent trading range (bearish), while a rising
stochastics indicates that price is tending to close
near the upper end of its recent trading range
(bullish).
Since OBV is measured by adding the
volume of an up day to a running total of volume
46 TREND TRADING FOR A LIVING
Figure 2.3 SPY with stochastics indicator.
and subtracting the volume of a down day from
that total, it gives us a pictorial image of whether
a stock is being accumulated (more shares being
bought than sold) or distributed (more shares sold
than bought) over time.
RSI is measured by dividing an average of
net positive changes in closing prices over a given
period of time by an average of net negative
changes in price. As this number increases over
time, a bullish trend is confirmed. When the
number decreases, a bearish trend is confirmed.
CCI is calculated by dividing price
increases or decreases over a period of time by a
mean standard deviation of a consensus or average
of price over time. The resulting plotted line of
this calculation will give visual readings of the
strength of current trends as well as indicate
“hidden” strength or weakness during relatively
flat market periods.
p62
you must always be ready to alter your trendlines
in response to new market data. It is all too easy
to draw in a trend channel where none really exists
because we have a predisposed bias to the stock moving
in a certain direction. Trendlines and wishful thinking
are a dangerous combination. For this reason, always
apply the following rule to your use of trend and channel
lines:
No trend or trading channel exists until a line can
be placed on the chart that intersects at least
three price points. Two price points can yield a
trendline, but no trading decision should be made
until a third touch of the line is recorded.
In Figure 2.15, the chart of RIMM demonstrates
Elder’s trendline technique in action. Here we see a downtrend
line and subsequent uptrend line passing through
areas of price congestion rather than at either intraday or
end-of-day price points.
No comments:
Post a Comment